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Cedar Fair Investing Around 140 Million In 2020

Just seen Amusement Insiders video on the Q2 Stock Holders call. For now, it is said that Canada's Wonderland have green light on the hotel, apparently announcing something on August 14th and there's possibly one or two more coasters (other than Kings Island) in 2020...and it could be a smaller park! Valleyfair Invert? Michigan's Adventure finally adding? Worlds Of Fun?


Definitely exciting!
 

Jarrett

Most Obnoxious Member 2016
Michigan’s Adventure is removing their car ride so I’m actually kind of hoping for a new coaster there! I’d rather see an RMC Raptor but I feel like either a small Eurofighter (Tantrum, Adrenaline Peak, etc.) or a small GCI are a bit more likely, especially with RMC liking to start early on their rides and dealing with the Michigan winter.

Other one is a head scratcher. Kings Dominion is the only one with a notable plot of freshly cleared land but they’ve also hinted it’s for 2021 so that’s out. Dorney or Worlds of Fun I wouldn’t rule out but I can’t think of a logical candidate for a third coaster.
 
I agree, even for a small coaster addition, you'd at least expect to see some earth moving or soil testing at this point.

Honestly, I'm expecting several water park additons; particularly for Great America, Kings Dominion, Canada's Wonderland, and Carowinds. There's also the $15M reported to be spent on capital investments for the Schlitterbahn parks (can't remember the source but I'm pretty sure that's the number). Kings Island Giga will obviously be in the $28-30 million range. I'm expecting several mid-to-large scale flats, on top of whatever they're spending on amenities/resorts and general infrastructure.
 

Kw6sTheater

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So are we only expecting KiGa to be the only coaster in the Cedar Fair chain next year?
I'm certainly not. I could see this being a similar year to how 2013 played out, with Gatekeeper in a role akin to the KiGa as the primary investment for that year but there would still be one or two more new coasters (Gold Striker & Coast Rider were the other new coasters for 2013, although Gold Striker was delayed past its intended 2009 opening) coming to other parks as well. I'd put my guess with Valleyfair or Worlds of Fun for the other 2020 coaster, as I could see either of those parks installing an RMC Raptor or Gerstlauer Infinity coaster akin to HangTime. That being said, though, Worlds of Fun just announced the removal of one of their slides, so 2020 might end up being a water park investment for them rather than a dry park one. Although I've lost tons of faith in this due to the lack of work walls, teasing or construction, there's always the possibility of Cedar Point getting a mid-sized coaster in 2020. If there isn't another new coaster for a different Cedar Fair park besides Kings Island, I do think that we will see a dispersal of water park (California's Great America, potentially Worlds of Fun, and Dorney Park), flat ride (Carowinds, maybe Valleyfair and Knott's Berry Farm, probably Canada's Wonderland as well) and park improvement (Cedar Point, Michigan's Adventure, and likely King's Dominion) investments throughout the chain.
 

tomahawk

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Interesting no one is mentioning Knotts.
Because there is literally nothing suggesting Knott's at all.

KIGA (not KiGa you heathens) is probably closer to 40-45 with all the land clearing, Firehawk removal, and the actual coaster (not my number but accurate). Schlitterbahn parks as part of sale are required(?) 12-15 per park, so that's another 40-45 gone. That would put it at about 50-60 mil for the rest of the chain. Hotel at CW (is that included in this amount?) and it looks like drop slides for all and the redone boardwalk at CP.

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Hyde

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So are we only expecting KiGa to be the only coaster in the Cedar Fair chain next year?
We are right around peak Cedar Fair roller coaster announcement season; thus far, Kings Island is the only confirmed announcement date we have.

We can stab in the dark as much as we want, but there's a pragmatic moment to recognize we have absolutely zero bearing on what any other Cedar Fair park outside of KI might, if at all, add in 2020. Let's also not forget Cedar Fair's acquisition of Schlitterbahn and Sawmill Resort nearby Cedar Point. We know the Schlitterbahn deal was for $262M and Sawmill for an undisclosed amount - however it's unclear how the financing spreads out, and if it's all paid upfront or over a certain time.
 
Because there is literally nothing suggesting Knott's at all.

KIGA (not KiGa you heathens) is probably closer to 40-45 with all the land clearing, Firehawk removal, and the actual coaster (not my number but accurate). Schlitterbahn parks as part of sale are required(?) 12-15 per park, so that's another 40-45 gone. That would put it at about 50-60 mil for the rest of the chain. Hotel at CW (is that included in this amount?) and it looks like drop slides for all and the redone boardwalk at CP.

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Doesn't have to be a roller coaster, but Knotts was singled out as one of the parks the company will be heavily investing in.
 

Pokemaniac

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I just watched a pretty informative video that dug a bit deeper into the Cedar Fair chain and their investment policies. Basically, money is spent where it can give a return. Cedar Point, Canada's Wonderland, Kings Island. Those are the flagship parks. KBF gets a higher attendance than all three, but it's both completely landlocked and completely crammed, so there's a bit of a limit as to what can be built there.

Michigan's Adventure is one of those parks with an inconvenient location, low visitor numbers and sparse demographics in the surrounding area. A new big coaster there could probably not attract enough new guests to justify its cost, particularly when compared against putting the same coaster in one of the other parks. So it has been consistently prioritized out. Same goes for Valleyfair!, Worlds of Fun and Dorney's. Those four parks make up the bottom tier of Cedar Fair's park portfolio, the "Have Nots" as Airtime Thrills labels them. There's also Gilroy Gardens, but it really seems like Cedar Fair forgot that they purchased that one, so it's not even considered.

That being said, with the smaller parks having been so neglected for so long, I could see them throw them a small bone or two to prevent total collapse of the visitor numbers. Besides, with KIGA confirmed, all the first-tier and second-tier parks have got new coasters since 2018 or later, so the opportunity is there for the low-tier parks to get something. We might not see big B&M Multiloopers popping up in the four Have Nots parks (or the Won't Ever Have park Gilroy Gardens), but something could be on the way still. Stuff along the lines of Mack spinners or Maurer X-Cars or something from the budget pages in the Vekoma catalog. Not fantastic world-class additions, but something that would be solid additions to the parks anyway.


Or they could blow most of the money on KIGA and the stuff @tomahawk mentioned, and invest the rest in stock buybacks, I guess.
 
Well some of that money will definitely go to worlds of fun, "We will be saying farewell to Diamond Head at the end of the 2019 season to welcome a new tide in 2020"


So with the mention of "a new tide" probable just some new slides, maybe a water coaster but they will be lucky. Or maybe it will be the first B&M surf coaster 😂
Well, I guess that leaves Michigan and Valleyfair. Cedar Point expansion, Kings Island Giga, Knotts not sure, Canada's Wonderland Kids area or flat ride, Kings Dominion will add coaster in 2021, CGA unsure - we thought Hyper in 2020/21 but that's 50/50...only parks that leaves is Michigan's Adventure and Dorney Park and Valleyfair!
 

peep

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I've seen some rumours recently for Knotts about an addition behind the rapids that just got upgraded. Fans seemed concerned this means an end for the currently closed show that was tucked back there. I think if this is something that happens we'll see construction next year but maybe not opening till 2021? I don't think it'll be a coaster but it's worth keeping an eye on.

Exciting to hear Cedar Fair is investing a lot this year though. Will be interesting to see the projects unveiled over the next few weeks.
 
I've seen some rumours recently for Knotts about an addition behind the rapids that just got upgraded. Fans seemed concerned this means an end for the currently closed show that was tucked back there. I think if this is something that happens we'll see construction next year but maybe not opening till 2021? I don't think it'll be a coaster but it's worth keeping an eye on.

Exciting to hear Cedar Fair is investing a lot this year though. Will be interesting to see the projects unveiled over the next few weeks.
There was also that rumoured Ghost Town expansion in some old buildings space. A flat ride (rumoured to be a Gerstlaurer Sky Fly) and a coaster in 2021/2022...
 

Jarrett

Most Obnoxious Member 2016
Didn’t Zimmerman also say that big investments would be fewer and further between since only one of the four 2018 coasters had a good effect on attendance? And that they would be focusing more on events and family stuff as a result? With the one coaster that worked being at Knotts, that makes sense.

I’d also expect a lot of stuff along the lines of Winterfest and Grand Carnivale. While I don’t know the exact numbers, we know Winterfest is profitable and I’d be very surprised if Carnivale was a flop considering how it was always rocking when it was going on. A third set of floats for the West Coast parks would be a good investment.
 

Kw6sTheater

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Well, I guess that leaves Michigan and Valleyfair. Cedar Point expansion, Kings Island Giga, Knotts not sure, Canada's Wonderland Kids area or flat ride, Kings Dominion will add coaster in 2021, CGA unsure - we thought Hyper in 2020/21 but that's 50/50...only parks that leaves is Michigan's Adventure and Dorney Park and Valleyfair!
Actually, California's Great America is basically confirmed to be receiving drop slides! Follow this link for more information, if you'd like to see the evidence:
 

Schoup

New Member
Just seen Amusement Insiders video on the Q2 Stock Holders call. For now, it is said that Canada's Wonderland have green light on the hotel, apparently announcing something on August 14th and there's possibly one or two more coasters (other than Kings Island) in 2020...and it could be a smaller park! Valleyfair Invert? Michigan's Adventure finally adding? Worlds Of Fun?


Definitely exciting!
THIS IS A NOTHING BURGER! Amusement Insiders again shows he literally knows nothing about Cedar Fair or business. CEDAR FAIR'S CORE CAPEX WAS 140M FOR 2019. People need to actually educate themselves and not be duped by Amusement Insiders that he has some "breaking news" or "exciting things such as Cedar Fair Investing 140M". They are doing the same thing as the year 2018 and about the same as 2017. Cedar Fair has been in the 135 to 140M core Capex range for several years. Cedar Fair has outlined about 10% core Capex of revenue and then extraneous projects on top of that that have ranged from 30 to 50M/yr...The many projects on hotels, dorms, etc...has made total Capex the last 2 years 188M and 190M. Total Capex the last 5 years has been 167M, 176M, 161M, 188M and 190M

Btw, if you actually listened to the conference call or read the the transcript he made stuff up that was not said. Cedar Fair did not say they were focusing on the east coasts park & CA parks. They did not go into that at all. They did not say the parks were the top growth parks in 2019. They said things were broad based and that when the big parks do well, it has an enhanced impact. The only park really mentioned was when they said Knotts was having "the best start ever", KB had a record year in 2018 so they are on track to beat that.
 
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