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Coronavirus: Impact on Theme Parks

Nicky Borrill said:
Over 1700 new cases today, highest daily increase since May 31st ?
Click to expand...

And a graph to support the data.

35590E65-7792-4EF2-AB15-4672B8D62171.jpeg
Looks like cases are going to be climbing from now on, especially with schools and unis heading back. What will be interesting to see is whether the government will impose tighter restrictions and local lockdown or will just let it happen to keep the economy thriving.

In comparison, as I know some are interested.

Germany:

DDC34168-F66C-4B51-ACEF-72A6F35A10DF.jpeg
And Italy:

1290D318-45F6-40C5-A032-EAB52CD3FC53.jpeg

In terms of quarantines, Portugal is almost 100% going to be re-added this Thursday, just after two weeks of being excluded from the quarantine. Ireland is also at huge risk of being added. Italy is in serious danger of being added to quarantine the following week if the current trend continues.

Currently Denmark and Germany are out of the danger zone if they can continue to keep cases level and under control but if they start rising exponentially they are in danger for the week after next.
 
JammyH said:
And a graph to support the data.

View attachment 9600
Looks like cases are going to be climbing from now on, especially with schools and unis heading back. What will be interesting to see is whether the government will impose tighter restrictions and local lockdown or will just let it happen to keep the economy thriving.

In comparison, as I know some are interested.

Germany:

View attachment 9601
And Italy:

View attachment 9602

In terms of quarantines, Portugal is almost 100% going to be re-added this Thursday, just after two weeks of being excluded from the quarantine. Ireland is also at huge risk of being added. Italy is in serious danger of being added to quarantine the following week if the current trend continues.

Currently Denmark and Germany are out of the danger zone if they can continue to keep cases level and under control but if they start rising exponentially they are in danger for the week after next.
Click to expand...

I think it would be fair to ‘let it burn’ looking at death rates now we have treatments available. Just so long as infection rates don’t look to overwhelm the NHS. So I expect nothing more than local restrictions in areas with alarming growth rates.

As for Portugal, they had 4 days of higher numbers, but it was back down again today, there’s hope for them if they can maintain that until Thursday isn’t there?
 
Nicky Borrill said:
As for Portugal, they had 4 days of higher numbers, but it was back down again today, there’s hope for them if they can maintain that until Thursday isn’t there?
Click to expand...

Their 7 day case average has hit 21.8 per 100,000 today, and there hasn't been an increase in testing to account for the increase in cases ie. the positivity ratio has gone up. They saw another 320 cases today so they are looking very likely to be re-added on Thursday. As soon as the 7 day moving average hits over 20 they move into a cause for concern list. If the 7 day average is still over 20 come Thursday they will be added to the quarantine list, but Liechtenstein's 7 day average recently moved over 20 but they managed to get it back down again so they are hanging by a thread right now.

The main issue in Portugal is they have night clubs open, street parties etc crammed full of people which is fuelling the spread of the virus since British tourists have been allowed to enter the country without quarantine upon return. I would say I'm 99% confident they will be re-added on Thursday as the government will not want to re-import and spread those cases. To be honest I think it was a massive mistake removing Portugal from quarantine in the first place as it was inevitable a Croatia/malta situation would end up taking place over there as there aren't proper measures in Portugal to curb the virus spread.

I'm going to upload the situation tomorrow as it will give us a better idea of the 7 day averages and where we stand with quarantines for Thursday, effective Saturday.

(Tables are sourced from https://www.reddit.com/user/sonicandfffan/ who is kindly updating the situation daily so that holiday makers are able to adapt as much as possible to the situation).

1598829861937.png
 
JammyH said:
Their 7 day case average has hit 21.8 per 100,000 today, and there hasn't been an increase in testing to account for the increase in cases ie. the positivity ratio has gone up. They saw another 320 cases today so they are looking very likely to be re-added on Thursday. As soon as the 7 day moving average hits over 20 they move into a cause for concern list. If the 7 day average is still over 20 come Thursday they will be added to the quarantine list, but Liechtenstein's 7 day average recently moved over 20 but they managed to get it back down again so they are hanging by a thread right now.

The main issue in Portugal is they have night clubs open, street parties etc crammed full of people which is fuelling the spread of the virus since British tourists have been allowed to enter the country without quarantine upon return. I would say I'm 99% confident they will be re-added on Thursday as the government will not want to re-import and spread those cases. To be honest I think it was a massive mistake removing Portugal from quarantine in the first place as it was inevitable a Croatia/malta situation would end up taking place over there as there aren't proper measures in Portugal to curb the virus spread.

I'm going to upload the situation tomorrow as it will give us a better idea of the 7 day averages and where we stand with quarantines for Thursday, effective Saturday.

(Tables are sourced from https://www.reddit.com/user/sonicandfffan/ who is kindly updating the situation daily so that holiday makers are able to adapt as much as possible to the situation).

View attachment 9603
Click to expand...
Yeh I was referring to the fact that their daily cases have dropped day on day for 2 days now... If that continues up to Thurs then they stand a chance... The weekly case rates aren’t the only factor considered, which is why we’ve seen countries with over 20.0 not added in the past :)

In fact, due to the lag in how weekly rates are calculated, it’s entirely plausible for their daily rates to continue to drop day on day, but their weekly case rate to continue to rise... However, IF that does happen, I can’t see them being re added...

Long story short, next 3 days are critical for Portugal and anybody travelling there!!!
 
JammyH said:
@Nicky Borrill have you got any more trips planned? I have germany planned for Sunday so keeping a close eye!
Click to expand...
Trying to put together a Hansa / Heide combo :)

Was hoping the recent Netherlands recovery would continue, so that we could ferry / drive... But it seems to have stagnated and their case rates are still way too high :(

So been pricing up fly / hire
 
Nicky Borrill said:
Trying to put together a Hansa / Heide combo :)

Was hoping the recent Netherlands recovery would continue, so that we could ferry / drive... But it seems to have stagnated and their case rates are still way too high :(

So been pricing up fly / hire
Click to expand...

Yeah... Netherlands are hovering at about 20 cases per 100,000 but the problem is it’s much easier to get added to the quarantine list than be removed. I think the guy on reddit said they need to come down below 15 cases per 100,000 and consistently stay there to be removed.

Unfortunately, policies in the Netherlands are just too relaxed as well as there is a lack of masks and social distancing, which will not help getting un-banned as the government do claim to look at testing and strictness of measures when deciding the quarantines too.
 
Interesting to see that Germany has seemingly managed to flatten their increase somewhat; should keep them off the quarantine list for the foreseeable, as I believe their COVID prevalence per 100,000 people is still currently lower than the UK’s, is it not?

It’s also very interesting to still see Sweden on the list, as their rates look incredibly low on that chart you just posted?
 
Howie said:
Time to move on, maybe?
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Absolutely not, even in the countries where we are seeing a surge the virus is very much under control compared to the outbreak in March/April. Back in March/April daily cases would have been topping 50,000, maybe even 100,000 a day, we just didn’t have the testing so we didn’t know the true scale of the outbreak.

The reason for the minimised hospitalisation is due to social distancing, testing and mask usage. If we were to take all of those away the virus would inevitably spiral out of control again and hit those vulnerable communities and overwhelm hospitals again- there’s a reason for all of these measures in place at the moment.

There’s only two real worldwide ways out of this virus, a treatment or vaccine, and failing those we are looking at worldwide mass regular testing. To just “move on” and let the virus run out of control again and inevitably kill hundreds of thousands unnecessarily would be very unethical, sorry.

Matt N said:
Interesting to see that Germany has seemingly managed to flatten their increase somewhat; should keep them off the quarantine list for the foreseeable, as I believe their COVID prevalence per 100,000 people is still currently lower than the UK’s, is it not?

It’s also very interesting to still see Sweden on the list, as their rates look incredibly low on that chart you just posted?
Click to expand...

Yep, germany is lower than the UK. UK is seeing a 14 day cumulative rate of 24 per 100,000 compared to 21 in Germany.

Sweden’s rates are very low now and justified enough for them to come off the quarantine list, but there’s a political argument to keep them on the list due to their strategy being very questionable from the start.
 
We also have to remember this virus does have long term health effects in the way of chronic conditions, lung problems, brain damage, loss of taste and smell or relapses. To move on and let the whole of the population get infected would leave a lot of people with permanent long term underlying health conditions, which would weaken the immune strength to be able to fight any future virus outbreaks.
 
Some positive news for the UK economy. Apparently we are experiencing....

“the sharpest rebound in economic growth among the G7 advanced economies, while retail spending has returned to pre-crisis levels.”

This has mostly been fuelled by the eat out scheme as well pent up demand for leisure and entertainment... Staycations and day trips benefitting UK leisure companies, such as theme parks.

I know that @Matt N was repeatedly suggesting this could be the case very early on during this crisis... So fair play to you Matt, it looks, for now, like you called it perfectly.

Not so good is the fact that lots of concern remains over jobs long term. :/

www.theguardian.com

'Eat out to help out' fuels UK economic recovery in August

Guardian analysis shows pace of job cuts on back of Covid-19 crisis remains the concern
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
Pokemaniac said:
https://www.facebook.com/winterwonderlanduk/posts/10157740165198269

Well, that sucks I guess.
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So Boris’s big ‘plan for a normal Christmas’ speech really has fallen on death ears then?

Hardly surprising, given he has no idea when / if there’ll be a vaccine, no idea if it will spike again in some areas during Autumn / Winter, and frankly no idea if people will be ‘ready’ to return to normality by Christmas if these obstacles are overcome.

We would normally have had our Christmas Party and Christmas Day Meals advertising up and ready to go by Bank Holiday weekend, that’s the usual ‘deadline’ date in the industry... We’ve not decided anything yet, nor have we seen anywhere else pushing it yet!!!
 
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