Alton Towers' Next Big Thing?

[Nicky Borrill]

It should be noted that they did alter the statistics, so clearly they didn’t do a straight copy and paste. If they altered the statistics, I’d imagine that “roller coaster” would likely have been edited out if they’d wanted as well.

Sorry, I should have mentioned, they also edited the other 5 times that Thorpe document mentions coaster to say 'attraction' instead. So they clearly did want to remove the term coaster....

Proof reading large documents like this is not easy

 

[Matt N]

Sorry, I should have mentioned, they also edited the other 5 times that Thorpe document mentions coaster to say 'attraction' instead. So they clearly did want to remove the term coaster....

Proof reading large documents like this is not easy

Ah, that makes sense… back to the guessing game it is, then!

My personal prediction remains indoor coaster, however. The building size and height would certainly lend themselves to one (albeit not a huge one), and there are certain pieces of evidence that lead me against the other popular rumour of a flying theatre.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

Ah, that makes sense… back to the guessing game it is, then!

My personal prediction remains indoor coaster, however. The building size and height would certainly lend themselves to one (albeit not a huge one), and there are certain pieces of evidence that lead me against the other popular rumour of a flying theatre.

Yep, to be clear, I'm not discounting a coaster at all. I'm just rubbishing the idea that these supposed smoking guns prove, without a doubt, that it's to be a coaster.

All these 'errors' prove, is that some people get paid way too much. It's clear that towers do not want the attraction type leaking yet, so whatever the attraction turns out to be, somebody missed these references in the edit / copy and paste. The worst part is, that it's probably both the contractors, and presumably somebody who proof reads for Merlin, who both missed it, despite the presence of search functions.

Anyway, back to your point. I still hope it could be a coaster. But now I've seen the budget, £12.5M, in the current UK economy, I am not sure what the money left over after planning, demolition, ground works, landscaping, theming, and constructing a massive show building, can actually buy you in terms of hardware...

There are people on here who are much better placed than me to make a very very very rough estimate of what might be left from £12.5m after all of that. (wink wink @Hixee I know you can't make anything close to an accurate estimate, but is just a very rough ballpark figure possible? Or anybody else for that matter. I know we have plenty of people involved higher up in the planning / engineering / construction industry here)

 

[jasone]

I am really confused and don’t know whether I’m expecting a coaster or something else. The lack of SW Codename makes me think not a coaster. But the size of the queue from the plans, the fact there are 3 queues (main queue, fast track and single rider possibly?) mean it has to be a pretty substantial ride. Also that roof shape seems to suggest it will be higher on one side inside than the other.

Looking through the planning application it does say in the noise section construction will begin spring 2023… so 2024 opening? This is closer than I expected. I assumed this would be for 2025 for some reason. This also makes me think not a coaster now, with Thorpe getting theirs most likely for 2024 too… I’m not sure they’d want to compete the same year?

 

[Nicky Borrill]

I am really confused and don’t know whether I’m expecting a coaster or something else. The lack of SW Codename makes me think not a coaster. But the size of the queue from the plans, the fact there are 3 queues (main queue, fast track and single rider possibly?) mean it has to be a pretty substantial ride. Also that roof shape seems to suggest it will be higher on one side inside than the other.

Looking through the planning application it does say in the noise section construction will begin spring 2023… so 2024 opening? This is closer than I expected. I assumed this would be for 2025 for some reason. This also makes me think not a coaster now, with Thorpe getting theirs most likely for 2024 too… I’m not sure they’d want to compete the same year?

I think this, and many other things happening at the park right now, are to address their known capacity issues.

Between 2010 and 2016 (due in no small part to reasons we're all aware of) their attendance dropped by almost 50% (an estimated 1.4M guests per year) and they were forced to take drastic steps to reduce costs. We lost filler attractions like Sub Terra, Toadstool and Ripsaw, and the main additions since have only replaced rides like Charlie and the Log Flume.

Alton Towers then started to recover up until 2019, taking back it's UK no1 crown that year. Then came Covid, which wasn't great for the parks, but did increase demand when they could open, due to staycation mentality etc. And it continued, it has since felt way busier than it ever did in 2019. This has lead to capacity issues that Alton Towers recognise and have attempted to remedy in the short term with the Retro Squad. But even with RS the park still feels very busy on peak days, often unbearably so and it only takes one break down or two to make the queues (and complaints) horrendous.

It's my theory that, recognising both the current issues they face, as well as the potential to, believe it or not, cash in on the impending financial crisis by attracting even more staycationers and day trippers, they're rapidly trying to correct those issues in two ways. By revamping older, less ridden, rides, leading to higher ridership of them, thus dispersing crowds more, as well as by adding back in lost capacity, with new filler rides.

My theory is that this ride will be a highly attractive 'whole family' ride of some type, possibly a coaster, but also possibly a high capacity flying theater or other dark attraction, that will draw big crowds, but have the capacity to handle them too. The important part being the capacity.

 

[spicy]

Anyway, back to your point. I still hope it could be a coaster. But now I've seen the budget, £12.5M, in the current UK economy, I am not sure what the money left over after planning, demolition, ground works, landscaping, theming, and constructing a massive show building, can actually buy you in terms of hardware...

There are people on here who are much better placed than me to make a very very very rough estimate of what might be left from £12.5m after all of that. (wink wink @Hixee I know you can't make anything close to an accurate estimate, but is just a very rough ballpark figure possible? Or anybody else for that matter. I know we have plenty of people involved higher up in the planning / engineering / construction industry here)

I was thinking the same, £12.5 million doesn’t seem a very big budget for an indoor coaster at all.

I know this is Disney but when you consider Guardians at Epcot cost $500m for that indoor coaster, just puts it into perspective how small of a budget AT have.

Maybe they are just sticking Spinball Whizzer inside the warehouse

 

[Hixee]

There are people on here who are much better placed than me to make a very very very rough estimate of what might be left from £12.5m after all of that. (wink wink @Hixee I know you can't make anything close to an accurate estimate, but is just a very rough ballpark figure possible?

With the caveat that I can't make anything close to an accurate estimate - £12.5m is not tons of money in today's climate. If I was taking a ballpark stab, I'd guess ~50/50 split "building*" and "coaster". *In this sense, building includes civil works, structure, architecture, buildings services and the like. Essentially everything short of the coaster itself. That guess is probably on the most optimistic end (optimistic for the biggest coaster), and I wouldn't be surprised to see something more like a 70/30 split.

Doesn't sound like masses of money to me...

 

[JoshC.]

Do we know how much Studio Tour at Movie Park Germany cost? I feel like I heard the €12m number batted around, but can't see that anywhere (and could just be imagining that because it's a similar number to what's touted here).

My reasoning for the comparison is we have a similarly sized building, but that building was already made and just required gutting, hence meaning more money to the coaster. Gives a good level of expectation.

 

[Matt N]

Given that Exodus is costing £17.5m and is a full-fledged hyper, I don’t think £12.5m sounds that low for a family indoor coaster.

If it’s a family coaster, the hardware probably won’t cost an awful lot, so that does leave money for the building and theming.

 

[Hixee]

My reasoning for the comparison is we have a similarly sized building, but that building was already made and just required gutting, hence meaning more money to the coaster. Gives a good level of expectation.

I've paid literally no attention to this project - does the building already exist? That would knock a fair chunk off, provided the changes to get it compliant with Building Regs aren't too onerous. Maybe you'd get the changes in for £5m or so, if that's the case.

Given that Exodus is costing £17.5m and is a full-fledged hyper, I don’t think £12.5m sounds that low for a family indoor coaster.

Is the £17.5m figure for Exodus the coaster hardware only? Or is it the entire project cost? This is where these things are muddy - it's not always clear exactly what is and isn't being included. £17.5m seems low for the overall project.

Should clarify - I'm no expert.

 

[JoshC.]

I've paid literally no attention to this project - does the building already exist? That would knock a fair chunk off, provided the changes to get it compliant with Building Regs aren't too onerous. Maybe you'd get the changes in for £5m or so, if that's the case.

Ahh, I made a meal out of what I said.

The building for Project Horizon does not exist.
My point was more if Studio Tour cost, say, €12m, and that  was built in an existing building, and this is costing £12.5m with a brand new building to be constructed, that should temper expectations for the coaster itself somewhat.

 

[Hixee]

My point was more if Studio Tour cost, say, €12m, and that  was built in an existing building, and this is costing £12.5m with a brand new building to be constructed, that should temper expectations for the coaster itself somewhat.

Ah yes - I had interpreted what you said back-to-front.

I stand by it - £12.5m is not loads to do the whole thing.

 

[ScottLann]

I stand by it - £12.5m is not loads to do the whole thing.

Especially when you look at the likes of that new £18m coaster at Flamingo Land....

 

[roomraider]

Maybe this will be the other half of Exodus

 

[Hixee]

Maybe this will be the other half of Exodus

Merlin's "tWO coAsTEr dEaL wiTH MaCk"

 

[Howie]

On the other hand, Paulton's can build Tornado Springs, an entirely new area with a coaster and multiple supporting attractions, for 12 million quid. Lost Kingdom, another brand new area with two coasters and supporting attractions for 8 million quid. When you're good with money you can do good things with it. It's just that, historically speaking, Merlin.... aren't.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

On the other hand, Paulton's can build Tornado Springs, an entirely new area with a coaster and multiple supporting attractions, for 12 million quid. Lost Kingdom, another brand new area with two coasters and supporting attractions for 8 million quid. When you're good with money you can do good things with it. It's just that, historically speaking, Merlin.... aren't.

There is the caveat that costs have risen exponentially since then, particularly in construction. Plus the main problem with this budget is the giant show building.

I still think a coaster ‘could’ be built, but expectations need to be very low if it is a coaster. Either the hardware or theming, possibly both, will be very sub par. This is Merlin, and they spent how much to build DBGT?

 

[Hixee]

There is the caveat that costs have risen exponentially since then, particularly in construction. Plus the main problem with this budget is the giant show building.

I still think a coaster ‘could’ be built, but expectations need to be very low if it is a coaster. Either the hardware or theming, possibly both, will be very sub par. This is Merlin, and they spent how much to build DBGT?

The other thing, again, is what was counted in those costs?!

Were infrastructure upgrades in the park included within those costs? They might have fallen into a different pot of money, and weren't reported in the same way (the classic example is upgrading the substations and power infrastructure on the site - you might strategically decide to do a decade+ worth of upgrades while you're doing a new project (reinforcing current networks, providing future capacity, etc, as well as the stuff you need 'now'), and for many clients that sort of thing would sit as part of larger strategic planning costs rather than individual project costs). Maybe there was £3-4m quid of infrastructure upgrade on top of the £8m that was never reported.

Market factors are also a huge factor - there's been a ~40% uplift in construction costs (predominantly materials) in the last three or four years alone.

The point is - all these numbers that get bandied about aren't particularly easy to compare and we (as goons) need to be careful to remember that you're extremely rarely comparing like-for-like.

 

[Matt N]

Rob from TowersStreet noticed that one of the building elevations showed a suspiciously coaster train-sized maintenance hatch on one side of the building:

Could this possibly add weight to the theory of it being an indoor coaster? I know that all rides will need a maintenance hatch, but that one does look to be the right sort of size for a coaster train.

Here’s Rob’s post: https://towersstreet.com/talk/threa...on-on-new-attraction.6401/page-46#post-385713

 

[Nicky Borrill]

Rob from TowersStreet noticed that one of the building elevations showed a suspiciously coaster train-sized maintenance hatch on one side of the building:
View attachment 21488
Could this possibly add weight to the theory of it being an indoor coaster? I know that all rides will need a maintenance hatch, but that one does look to be the right sort of size for a coaster train.

Here’s Rob’s post: https://towersstreet.com/talk/threa...on-on-new-attraction.6401/page-46#post-385713

Matt… Are coaster trains massively different in size to any other people carrying ride vehicle???

I think you’ve answered your own question here.

Deep down I think you know people are so hoping for it to be a coaster that they’re manufacturing evidence that it is, where there is none… A bit like how Exodus was definitely going to be B&M (And yes I know a B&M, and several other options, were considered, but by the time rumours got to the public, and all of that documentation drawn up, it had already long been decided… Didn’t stop people being sure it was a B&M.)

We’ll find out for sure if it’s a coaster or not, when Merlin want us to find out.