UK General Election 4th July 2024

[Matt N]

Hi guys. On 22nd May 2024, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stood outside 10 Downing Street and announced a general election in the UK for Thursday 4th July 2024. This election will be an interesting one, as it is the first election following seismic events such as COVID, the Ukraine invasion and the cost of living crisis. The incumbent Conservative government are also incredibly unpopular, with the opposing Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, commanding opinion poll leads of more than 20 percentage points for a sustained period. With this in mind, I thought it might be interesting to start a thread regarding the election. Who are people intending to vote for? What issues do you think are important in this election? What do you think the result might be?

Personally, I presently think I’m going to vote Labour in this election. I think we need a change from the current Conservative government, and in my Conservative seat, the Forest of Dean, Labour are our best bet at unseating the Conservatives. I’d also say that although I don’t have overly entrenched political beliefs, I often tend to find myself agreeing with the left-wing arguments made by the Labour Party. On a side note, it’ll actually be my first ever General Election vote, so I’m looking forward to that!

In terms of the result I’m expecting; I think Labour will probably win, but not by the obscene margins that some are predicting. My hunch is that Labour’s current opinion poll lead is largely caused by anti-Tory sentiment and Labour being the most obvious alternative rather than any particular enthusiasm for Keir Starmer or the Labour Party. Unlike, say, Tony Blair back in 1997, Keir Starmer and his Labour Party do not seem overly popular in isolation, which I think could prevent them from hitting the heights of electoral success that Blair did back in 1997. This is contrast to most polls, however, so I could be wrong; opinion polls such as the YouGov MRP poll are predicting a Labour majority of unprecedented proportions and a Tory wipeout.

One interesting development that happened last night was the first televised debate between Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer, the two main prime ministerial candidates, on ITV. I don’t know if anyone else watched the debate, but I did, and I’m not quite sure what to make of it. I don’t think I could declare a conclusive “winner”, as I’m not sure either leader came across brilliantly.

Sunak’s approach perhaps suited the debate style better, with him being able to get in some effective sound bites (“£2,000 more tax under Labour” was one he repeatedly reiterated that Starmer did little to counteract) and put across his plans. However, I think Sunak came across quite tetchy at times, with him repeatedly ranting and interrupting Starmer while he was speaking, and he said quite a few things that seemed like either conspiracy theories or blatant scaremongering about Labour. He also got laughed at or groaned at a few times by the audience, with the loudest derision probably coming when he spoke about his plans to reinstate national service, and he made the notable gaffe of trying to claim that NHS waiting lists are coming down despite Starmer reminding him that the waiting list was 7.2 million when he made that initial pledge and 7.5 million now…

Starmer said some good stuff, particularly around Great British Energy and housing, but I don’t think he suits quickfire very well (he was repeatedly cut off before being able to give his answer properly), and I also think that he deflected to the Tories’ record in government a lot, even when he was asked directly about what he’d do about a particular issue. For a lot of questions, it felt like he was reiterating the same sentiment about the Tories breaking the economy and the Tories having wrecked the country in their 14 years in power, even when he was asked directly for his own proposal. I fear that this only plays into the Tory attack line that “Labour has no plan”.

But what do you think of the goings on in the election campaign so far? Who do you think you might vote for on 4th July? I’d be really keen to know; it’ll certainly be an interesting, and potentially course-changing, few weeks for the UK!

 

[EmmaUK]

Honestly, I’m a dyed in the wool lefty, mining family from Yorkshire and all that. And I can’t bring myself to vote for the Tories, red or blue. So greens it will have to be instead

 

[Will]

It's going to have to be Labour - I can actually see Reform getting support in Stoke and I can't be doing with that.

As glad as I am to be rid of the Government that have made such a ****show of the last decade, I really don't believe things will get better socio-politically anytime soon. I have zero faith in Starmer being any more reliable than Jubilee Odyssey.

 

[Graeme]

I used to love politics, but approach it now as just a bit of theatre.

I would like to vote Reclaim, Heritage or for an independent, such as Andrew Bridgen, but that won't be possible for me. I'm not particularly right wing, but I see them as telling more truth than most.

Labour and Conservative, I believe, are both authoritarian. It amused me when Nigel Farage threw his hat into the ring the other day. I do like him, in the same way I like Donald Trump, but you just can't put your faith in any of them. I also don't get as excited about immigration as Reform tend to, but I must admit they do have a point about the sheer numbers. It's about questioning authority, which is always a good thing to do.

But in all honesty, I'll probably vote Lib Dem. People say they're all the same, with some justification, but the Lib Dems have voted differently to Labour and the Tories in recent years. Slightly more freedom loving, slightly more libertarian. My "current" MP is Conservative, who needless to say, simply tows the party line. The Labour candidate ignores my messages. The Lib Dem candidate, however, is more genuine than the others. I wrote him a polite email that used strong language about very controversial subjects. He replied saying he didn't agree with all my points, but some of what I said should be investigated. I respected that he wasn't too scared of the subject to talk about it, which is what I ask of an MP. He's a local man and I do see him around, so if it's about voting for the person who will represent you best in Parliament, for me that's Lib Dem.

 

[Furiustobaco]

For me i really am undecided. I probably will vote Starmer as he is probably the safest option in my opinion. Labour will probably win, and I am sure things will be slightly less sh** that they are now. But that’s what Labour are, the party that everyone hates the second least. I’m sure it’ll do..

A part of me wants to vote Lib Dems or even Reform. For me I kinda have broad political views. Some of my views are very left wing, I also have some right wing opinions on some situations. I feel like both of those parties would be more interesting, and challenge the status quo. I want to vote against the status quo, but also not end up another term of Tory bullsh**. I wish preferential voting was a thing here.

 

[Dar]

After reading Reform's "contract with you" AKA their manifesto, I can only conclude that they are (pardon my francais) ****ing mental. It's hilarious to me when parties put their costings for their "savings" front and centre, but then don't have any costings for their other plans.
For example:

All frontline NHS and social care staff to pay zero basic rate tax for 3 years. This will help retain existing staff and attract back many who have recently left. We want the best staff with patients, not in offices behind desks or retired.

sounds great! We all want to back our doctors and nurses. But there are between 700,000 and 1 million workers that could be affected by this ("frontline NHS and social care staff" isn't well defined), which is a large chunk of change to disappear from the public purse. And then after three years they start paying it anyway, which puts them back in the same position they were before the pause.

A 20% tax relief on private healthcare *sounds* great, but surely the money from that tax relief could've been spent on the NHS and saved the need for tax relief on private healthcare?

Plus it's very, very difficult to take any adult document that uses the word 'woke' pejoratively seriously.

Granted, I've only read 8 of the 23 chapters, but I don't see it getting any less insane further in.

Edit: Told you it wasn't getting any saner. Points one and two from the education chapter:

Ban Transgender Ideology in Primary and Secondary Schools.
There are 2 sexes and 2 genders. It is a dangerous safeguarding issue to confuse children by suggesting otherwise. No gender questioning, social transitioning or pronoun swapping. Inform parents of under 16s about their children’s life decisions. Schools must have single sex facilities.

Ban Critical Race Theory in Primary and Secondary Schools.
It is unacceptable to divide children on grounds of race and teach them to be ashamed of their country.

Nothing about how to bolster our education system, or how to improve the lives and overall wellbeing of the children in schools that are literally falling apart. None of that, but more culture war ****e designed to rile people up enough that they don't look further into their policies. Like minimum entry standards to university, the easiest way to exclude large numbers of kids from deprived schools that are just trying to survive, never mind produce A/A*s across the board. So that kid that DOES excel and shine is going to get as much help as they can from their teachers, but they're never going to get the same support as a kid from a wealthier area.

I really hate this thread they're weaving through these chapters, that people that can afford private education/healthcare, should be rewarded with tax reliefs for removing their burden from the state system. IF THEY PAID THEIR SHARE, THERE WOULDN'T BE SHORTAGES IN THE STATE SYSTEM.

 

[Sandman]

This election really highlights the glaring failure of the two party system.

I don't think that Labour will be quite as devastating for the country as the Tories have been for the last 14 years, that's something that will be hard to top.

However, in a country so divided on numerous issues, we almost have to concede that it's always going to be Conservative or Labour, and therefore they can get away with throwing away a few of their most promising policies and U-turning on ideas people got behind them for.

Sure, there's nothing stopping any voter from voting for the Greens, Reform or Lib Dem etc. But deep down, everybody knows that who gets into power is a foregone conclusion. In 2024, and when times are so hard for people and industries are on their knees, I don't know how that makes sense. The donors that the Tories and Labour get, the relationships they have with certain media moguls, oligarchs, financiers, makes things even more messy and complicated. Politics is exhausting (and deliberately so!)

 

[Furiustobaco]

After watching the debates and researching how my area votes, I’m probably dropping the Lib Dems a vote. They actually polled in my area to have a very similar amount of support as Labour. Where i live now (in SW London) has generally been quite Tory friendly. At the moment it’s really Lib Dems Vs Labour, and I know I’d rather take Lib Dems. I think labour will win the election regardless. I’d like a Lib Dem rep, the 7 way debate painted them in quite a good light id say as well.

I think my area is a good reflection of the conservative downfall. Tory strongholds are no longer safe. People are sick of them wherever you’re Nigel Farage supporter or a Green Party Member. My currently Tory controlled area now has Conservatives down with Reform in popularity. I believe areas around (Like Surrey’s many affluent towns) will fall a similar fate. My borough in general isn’t very liberal and the tories do not even stand a chance.

 

[HandsUpPantsDown]

The whole situation is very depressing. I cannot bring myself to vote for the red tories who refused to vote for a cease fire, ran by a so-called human rights lawyer...
Electoral reform is desperately needed for any sort of proper democratic change to happen. Belarus is the only other European country with FPTP...
We've truly entered late-stage capitalism, with no more excuses for the insane inflation and wealth inequality we're experiencing apart from pure corporate greed. It's sad. Tinfoil hat vibes, but yeah 'the west' is going to have a tough time ahead in my opinion.
I'll be voting green, the only party with anything reasonable to offer imo.

 

[JoshC.]

If you felt the election didn't appeal go goons enough, the Lib Dems have you covered:

x.com

x.com

x.com

x.com

 

[Tonkso]

I'll probably be voting tactically, but I am liking what the Lib Dems are putting out at the moment (ignoring the Thorpe Park bit, which is brilliant). They also seem to be the only ones running a positive campaign, rather than simply bashing everyone else which after 14 years of Tory chaos is deeply refreshing.

I'll likely vote Labour though as that seems to be the tactical vote, I also hope to see some good stuff in their manifesto later this week. Starmer seems competent, boring (which is a positive thing in politics, in my opinion) and level headed. The Overton window will not shift left overnight, but he seems like the man to steer it in that direction.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

I voted green in the locals, and we got green councillors.

However for the general, the only real chance of removing conservatives is with a labour vote. It may be a ‘lesser of two evils’ choice. But I would do almost anything at this stage to remove the conservatives.

 

[Nitefly]

The whole situation is very depressing. I cannot bring myself to vote for the red tories who refused to vote for a cease fire, ran by a so-called human rights lawyer...

The situation re: Isreal/Gaza is a difficult one for the major parties to navigate for sure.

But on the comment in bold, I think it’s fair to say that Kier was a ****ing outstanding lawyer.

Keir Starmer was called to the Bar in 1987 and appointed Queen’s Counsel in 2002. He practised from Doughty Street Chambers since its inception in 1990 and was appointed Head of Chambers in 2007. His main areas of practice were human rights, international law, judicial review, extradition, criminal law, police law and media law.

He was named as QC of the Year in the field of human rights and public law in 2007 by the Chambers & Partners directory and in 2005 he won the Bar Council’s Sydney Elland Goldsmith award for his outstanding contribution to pro bono work in challenging the death penalty throughout the Caribbean and also in Uganda, Kenya and Malawi. From 2003–08, Starmer was the human rights adviser to the Policing Board in Northern Ireland. He took up his appointment as the Director of Public Prosecutions and Head of the Crown Prosecution Service in November 2008.

Phwoar!

 

[davidm]

Whatever you do, PLEASE VOTE.

I genuinely would rather you voted for a party I disagreed with than not vote at all - the "it doesn't matter" / "I'm not interested" attitude (not that I'm saying anyone has shown that attitude) is wilfully giving up any right to complain about anything (IMHO).

(And vote in EVERY election you can, i.e. local councils too, it all counts and is is literally the least you can do to influence your environment. You have to believe that the "fringe-elements" make sure that every one of their supporters uses their vote, so if you don't like the fringe (of whichever "style") - that's how to marginalise them)

 

[Will]

(I've applied to be a vote counter though - it appeals to the stats nerd in me)

 

[Rob Coasters]

I haven't fully decided yet, and will comment more on the matter after work today, but I hate how this feels like a "vote for the party you hate the least" thing instead of a "vote for the party you like the most" thing.

I'll dive deeper later, but short version I'd like the party who a) actually cares about improving the reliability of public transport & the safety of active travel, and b) doesn't have a "cost of living crisis" spawn under their rule then actively decide to allow it to get worse while not doing enough to counteract it.

 

[Howie]

No idea yet who I'm going to vote for, but I can definitely tell you who I won't be voting for, and that's Conservative or Labour. Two cheeks of the same arse as far as I'm concerned. Neither will I be voting Green. I have major questions about the current green agenda and all this net zero bollocks and I'm absolutely convinced we're being lied to on a monumental scale. I guess that leaves eitber Lib Dem, Reform or Reclaim but I think I'll more than likely be voting for a local independent candidate after I've done a bit more research.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

No idea yet who I'm going to vote for, but I can definitely tell you who I won't be voting for, and that's Conservative or Labour. Two cheeks of the same arse as far as I'm concerned. Neither will I be voting Green. I have major questions about the current green agenda and all this net zero bollocks and I'm absolutely convinced we're being lied to on a monumental scale. I guess that leaves eitber Lib Dem, Reform or Reclaim but I think I'll more than likely be voting for a local independent candidate after I've done a bit more research.

That's a discussion I'd love to have with you, and get to understand why you think we're being lied to... But this isn't the time or place.

For what it's worth, I absolutely do think the climate emergency is a real problem... HOWEVER, I also think that many, if not most, of the solutions being pushed at the moment are not solutions, they're mostly just more ways for certain people / groups to line their pockets. But like I said, let's not get into it here.

 

[Howie]

HOWEVER, I also think that many, if not most, of the solutions being pushed at the moment are not solutions, they're mostly just more ways for certain people / groups to line their pockets.

Well for what it's worth, many of the questions I have revolve around that very theme - these so called 'solutions' being offered forced upon us, and more specifically who benefits from them.
But I agree, that would be a fascinating discussion to have over a few beers.
Or in a queueline...

 

[spicy]

No idea yet who I'm going to vote for, but I can definitely tell you who I won't be voting for, and that's Conservative or Labour. Two cheeks of the same arse as far as I'm concerned.

This.

Labour will win by a landslide but I will probably vote Reform as I would much rather have a different opposition party than the Tories. Looking at the polls they are the only ones with a real chance to become an alternative opposition party.

I think the next general election is where it becomes interesting once everyone experiences 5 years of the Labour party making a mess of things just as much as the Tories did. After that then we may finally see some real change in UK politics for the better. I do hope I am wrong though and the Labour party aren't just the Tories in disguise.