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furie

furie

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It was reassuring to know the person who had fixed it was still on the aeroplane. What are the odds of something like that happening?
Click to expand...

Just to be an arse.

To be fair, the chances are actually pretty good. It would be rare to find an aircraft engineer who didn't enjoy flying. They will be well paid and get discounted flights, so there will, on any day, be many hundreds if not thousands of aircraft engineers flying.

Again, the engineer will most likely be flying for their company as people will often act with loyalty towards their employers. They are also (if they have the chance) likely to fly planes they know, because they will have added comfort and confidence in planes they know are serviced to their own abilities and standards. They will also have a preference towards a type of plane.

Anyway, the point is, there's a very good chance that each day, there will be an engineer, on a flight for their own company, flying in a plane they maintain.

Let's surmise that this happens each day - so that 365 instances of this happening each year.

Every day thousands of flights world wide will be delayed due to mechanical issues. I'm showing results of about 50,000 flights a day, with an average of 20% delayed. I think it's fair to reason that maybe an eighth are due to mechanical issues (that's probably low, but it gives us some idea.

So, 10,000 flights a day delayed. 1,250 a day have mechanical issues.

From 50,000 flights, an engineer will be on one (we'll assume that the engineer is flying their company and their plane as reasoned above).

There's a 1 in 20 chance that he will be on a delayed flight.

Then there's a 1 in 8 chance that he'll be on one with a mechanical failure.

That means that there's a 1,250 out of 50,000 ( or 1 in 40) chance that an plane will suffer a mechanical delay with an engineer on board.

So:
It was reassuring to know the person who had fixed it was still on the aeroplane. What are the odds of something like that happening?
Click to expand...

Chances are roughly 2.5% then. Odds of 40:1 in fact - not bad to be honest :)
 
E

Emmett

Giga Poster
I bet it wouldn't happen on a Ryanair flight though, they'd probably have one of the air hostesses doubling up in a course on electronics and send them down to fix the problem.
 
furie

furie

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Administrator
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Emmett said:
I bet it wouldn't happen on a Ryanair flight though, they'd probably have one of the air hostesses doubling up in a course on electronics and send them down to fix the problem.
Click to expand...

They'd let them do it, but they'd have to pay for the course first. I say course... You put a £2 coin in the slot and it prints out your qualification. You have to borrow the £2 off Ryanair though, and they charge 1342% interest compound per day on it with a repayment scheme of three years. :p
 
T

tks

Strata Poster
Anyone else having flashbacks to the Father Ted episode? :lol:

"You have used 3 inches of sticky-tape, god bless you"
 
J

jokerman

Giga Poster
furie said:
It was reassuring to know the person who had fixed it was still on the aeroplane. What are the odds of something like that happening?
Click to expand...

Just to be an arse.

To be fair, the chances are actually pretty good. It would be rare to find an aircraft engineer who didn't enjoy flying. They will be well paid and get discounted flights, so there will, on any day, be many hundreds if not thousands of aircraft engineers flying.

Again, the engineer will most likely be flying for their company as people will often act with loyalty towards their employers. They are also (if they have the chance) likely to fly planes they know, because they will have added comfort and confidence in planes they know are serviced to their own abilities and standards. They will also have a preference towards a type of plane.

Anyway, the point is, there's a very good chance that each day, there will be an engineer, on a flight for their own company, flying in a plane they maintain.

Let's surmise that this happens each day - so that 365 instances of this happening each year.

Every day thousands of flights world wide will be delayed due to mechanical issues. I'm showing results of about 50,000 flights a day, with an average of 20% delayed. I think it's fair to reason that maybe an eighth are due to mechanical issues (that's probably low, but it gives us some idea.

So, 10,000 flights a day delayed. 1,250 a day have mechanical issues.

From 50,000 flights, an engineer will be on one (we'll assume that the engineer is flying their company and their plane as reasoned above).

There's a 1 in 20 chance that he will be on a delayed flight.

Then there's a 1 in 8 chance that he'll be on one with a mechanical failure.

That means that there's a 1,250 out of 50,000 ( or 1 in 40) chance that an plane will suffer a mechanical delay with an engineer on board.

So:
It was reassuring to know the person who had fixed it was still on the aeroplane. What are the odds of something like that happening?
Click to expand...

Chances are roughly 2.5% then. Odds of 40:1 in fact - not bad to be honest :)
Click to expand...

This was interesting to read, and I suppose you could be right, but you have made so many assumptions here that the chances of you being anywhere near the correct probability are miniscule. Still, it was entertaining!
 
furie

furie

SBOPD
Staff member
Administrator
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jokerman said:
This was interesting to read, and I suppose you could be right, but you have made so many assumptions here that the chances of you being anywhere near the correct probability are miniscule. Still, it was entertaining!
Click to expand...

Absolutely, but I reckon I erred well on the side of caution :p
 
Steven

Steven

Giga Poster
jokerman said:
furie said:
It was reassuring to know the person who had fixed it was still on the aeroplane. What are the odds of something like that happening?
Click to expand...

Just to be an arse.

To be fair, the chances are actually pretty good. It would be rare to find an aircraft engineer who didn't enjoy flying. They will be well paid and get discounted flights, so there will, on any day, be many hundreds if not thousands of aircraft engineers flying.

Again, the engineer will most likely be flying for their company as people will often act with loyalty towards their employers. They are also (if they have the chance) likely to fly planes they know, because they will have added comfort and confidence in planes they know are serviced to their own abilities and standards. They will also have a preference towards a type of plane.

Anyway, the point is, there's a very good chance that each day, there will be an engineer, on a flight for their own company, flying in a plane they maintain.

Let's surmise that this happens each day - so that 365 instances of this happening each year.

Every day thousands of flights world wide will be delayed due to mechanical issues. I'm showing results of about 50,000 flights a day, with an average of 20% delayed. I think it's fair to reason that maybe an eighth are due to mechanical issues (that's probably low, but it gives us some idea.

So, 10,000 flights a day delayed. 1,250 a day have mechanical issues.

From 50,000 flights, an engineer will be on one (we'll assume that the engineer is flying their company and their plane as reasoned above).

There's a 1 in 20 chance that he will be on a delayed flight.

Then there's a 1 in 8 chance that he'll be on one with a mechanical failure.

That means that there's a 1,250 out of 50,000 ( or 1 in 40) chance that an plane will suffer a mechanical delay with an engineer on board.

So:
It was reassuring to know the person who had fixed it was still on the aeroplane. What are the odds of something like that happening?
Click to expand...

Chances are roughly 2.5% then. Odds of 40:1 in fact - not bad to be honest :)
Click to expand...

This was interesting to read, and I suppose you could be right, but you have made so many assumptions here that the chances of you being anywhere near the correct probability are miniscule. Still, it was entertaining!
Click to expand...

That is very interesting thanks. There will be a qualified, non certified, non licensed one who know the minimum on the euro lives planes as well!
 
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