Coronavirus: Impact on Theme Parks

[JammyH]

Interestingly, the virus doesn't seem to have deterred Cedar Fair from building new rides; Kings Dominion is still going ahead with its Free Spin for 2021, and Dorney Park has just filed to build a new coaster for next year!

I assume if companies have already drafted up plans for a new investment and done a lot of the planning and design work already, if they can afford to go ahead with the project, then they will.

The projects which the virus is going to impact are probably the ones which haven't started to be planned or any design work taken place yet. Probably projects in initial brainstorming stages are the ones most likely to be discarded.

 

[Matt N]

I assume if companies have already drafted up plans for a new investment and done a lot of the planning and design work already, if they can afford to go ahead with the project, then they will.

The projects which the virus is going to impact are probably the ones which haven't started to be planned or any design work taken place yet. Probably projects in initial brainstorming stages are the ones most likely to be discarded.

So what sort of year are we thinking for projects getting canned? 2022 or later?

The only reason that I mentioned Cedar Fair is because Six Flags already seems to have canned a number of its 2020 CAPEX projects, although they were in a somewhat shaky financial state before coronavirus.

I think I've mentioned this before, but as the fallout from this virus could plunge us into the largest global recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s, could we see a few years of no new rides being built at all for the first time in quite a few decades if things go very badly, or do we think that parks will press ahead with CAPEX projects, discounting coronavirus as a temporary stoppage to business?

 

[Nicky Borrill]

So what sort of year are we thinking for projects getting canned? 2022 or later?

The only reason that I mentioned Cedar Fair is because Six Flags already seems to have canned a number of its 2020 CAPEX projects, although they were in a somewhat shaky financial state before coronavirus.

I think I've mentioned this before, but as the fallout from this virus could plunge us into the largest global recession since the Great Depression in the 1930s, could we see a few years of no new rides being built at all for the first time in quite a few decades if things go very badly, or do we think that parks will press ahead with CAPEX projects, discounting coronavirus as a temporary stoppage to business?

Weren’t visitor numbers up at domestic parks during the last recession due to Staycations? Sure I read that somewhere.

For example... Between 2009 and 2012

Alton Towers got... Thi3teen, Smiler, Sea Life and Nemesis Sub Terra.

Thorpe got... Saw, Swarm and Storm Surge.

 

[Professor]

Whether recession or not I can imagine that certain holiday types and destinations might really struggle to get Brits going again for a while once things settle down: cruises and trips to most of Asia. Perhaps even Italy, Spain and New York would be an issue but I would have thought that might be more short term.
Carnival (owner of P&O cruises) 's share price dropped to its lowest for 25 years, quite telling I think.

Even this whole repatriation carry on might put people off from holidays abroad but they could be lured back mostly with good deals I guess.

UK destinations including day trips to theme parks might be fine or do even better as a result indeed. But it probably doesn't offer them much comfort at a time of massive uncertainty right now.

 

[Matt N]

Weren’t visitor numbers up at domestic parks during the last recession due to Staycations? Sure I read that somewhere.

For example... Between 2009 and 2012

Alton Towers got... Thi3teen, Smiler, Sea Life and Nemesis Sub Terra.

Thorpe got... Saw, Swarm and Storm Surge.

That's what I keep telling myself, and I think that the parks could benefit once lockdowns end, but everyone I talk to seems convinced that no one will have any money to visit theme parks once this is over. I don't believe that to be true, personally, as the government's furloughing scheme should prevent any significant job losses.

Most economic predictions I read seem to suggest that we will have returned to economic growth by 2021 at the latest, so I predict that the actual recession itself will be short and sharp. This is also a rather different recession to most, as there is no fundamental issue with the economy or the financial system. This is very much self-imposed, so in theory, reopening businesses and letting people back out again should help to offset some of its effects.

I was also reading an interesting article about an analysis done by Wells Fargo on guest figures at Walt Disney World. They predict that in a worst case scenario, visitor figures could take until 2022 to recover. So I think by 2025 or so, probably sooner, parks should be back to a reasonable degree of normality as far as visitor figures go.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

That's what I keep telling myself, and I think that the parks could benefit once lockdowns end, but everyone I talk to seems convinced that no one will have any money to visit theme parks once this is over. I don't believe that to be true, personally, as the government's furloughing scheme should prevent any significant job losses.

Most economic predictions I read seem to suggest that we will have returned to economic growth by 2021 at the latest, so I predict that the actual recession itself will be short and sharp. This is also a rather different recession to most, as there is no fundamental issue with the economy or the financial system. This is very much self-imposed, so in theory, reopening businesses and letting people back out again should help to offset some of its effects.

I was also reading an interesting article about an analysis done by Wells Fargo on guest figures at Walt Disney World. They predict that in a worst case scenario, visitor figures could take until 2022 to recover. So I think by 2025 or so, probably sooner, parks should be back to a reasonable degree of normality as far as visitor figures go.

Matt these are unprecedented times, people are nervous, anxious and that’s bringing out the negativity... in a couple of months, when we’re past the worst, things will be looking up.

Try not to pay too much attention to the negativity. By all means make yourself aware of the worst that could happen, don’t bury your head, but don’t dwell on it either, focus on positivity instead... ?

 

[Matt N]

Matt these are unprecedented times, people are nervous, anxious and that’s bringing out the negativity... in a couple of months, when we’re past the worst, things will be looking up.

Try not to pay too much attention to the negativity. By all means make yourself aware of the worst that could happen, don’t bury your head, but don’t dwell on it either, focus on positivity instead... ?

That's what I'm trying to tell myself; once the vaccine comes out, which some Oxford University professors working on one now think could be as soon as September 2020, with mass rollout to the community by 12-18 months from now, we'll be living like this never happened!

 

[Nicky Borrill]

That's what I'm trying to tell myself; once the vaccine comes out, which some Oxford University professors working on one now think could be as soon as September 2020, with mass rollout to the community by 12-18 months from now, we'll be living like this never happened!

Haha, don’t get me started on the vaccine ??

But yeh, stay positive, vaccine or no vaccine with each 1% of the population that has the virus and recovers, it get less dangerous to life and the economy

 

[Matt N]

To be honest, I think there could be some normality restored before the vaccine is widely available, as the government's long term strategy is apparently focused on testing and technology more than it is on social distancing. And I think stringent testing and contact tracing could make a huge difference; look at South Korea, for example. They've gotten their cases mostly under control, but they haven't imposed any sort of lockdown as far as I'm aware and are still forecast to see economic growth in 2020. That can all be owed to their stringent testing and contact tracing measures.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

To be honest, I think there could be some normality restored before the vaccine is widely available, as the government's long term strategy is apparently focused on testing and technology more than it is on social distancing. And I think stringent testing and contact tracing could make a huge difference; look at South Korea, for example. They've gotten their cases mostly under control, but they haven't imposed any sort of lockdown as far as I'm aware and are still forecast to see economic growth in 2020. That can all be owed to their stringent testing and contact tracing measures.

Without going into too much scientific detail... Contact tracing is a possible solution for preventing, or reducing the “second wave” it won’t really help with this one as it’s too far spread already...

The fact that Apple and Google are actually working together on it, and every country is increasing testing capacity, fills me with hope that ALL governments will have the tools at their disposal to test, trace and isolate successfully should there be a second wave.

 

[FarleyFlavors]

the government's long term strategy is apparently focused on testing and technology more than it is on social distancing

The government actually has a strategy?

You could've fooled me.

 

[Matt N]

The government actually has a strategy?

You could've fooled me.

Of course they have a strategy, or else we wouldn't be locked down! The lockdown is apparently only a placeholder to buy us time, and they want the long term strategy to focus more on testing and contact tracing than social distancing.

They're being guided by the science and are trying to enact policies that do the least harm possible, both economic and health wise. If we follow the rules and put our faith in the government, then we will defeat this as quickly as possible and come out stronger!

 

[Nicky Borrill]

Of course they have a strategy, or else we wouldn't be locked down!

Matt has a point you know ?

 

[Sandman]

Of course they have a strategy, or else we wouldn't be locked down! The lockdown is apparently only a placeholder to buy us time, and they want the long term strategy to focus more on testing and contact tracing than social distancing.

They're being guided by the science and are trying to enact policies that do the least harm possible, both economic and health wise. If we follow the rules and put our faith in the government, then we will defeat this as quickly as possible and come out stronger!

Matt, our government have been embarassing throughout this disaster. Lockdown came too late, Boris looked as buffoonish as ever, talking about shaking hands and seeing no issue with it all the way into mid March. They didn't ban public events soon enough as they saw "no need at this stage". Same with closure of pubs, they literally belittled the idea of doing so and left it in the hands of the landlords, before quickly backtracking a few days later. Not to mention lack of clarity over key workers.

They talk a good talk when it comes to testing but we have been abysmal at that as well. Fundemental lack of PPE which Matt Hancock now has the gall to say is down to over-use by NHS staff (absolutely ridiculous). Medical practitioners galore have expressed the issues stemming from government, in as transparent a fashion as possible. There is no faith in the government to do the right thing, for good reason.

 

[davidm]

I'm sorry that you feel that way. FFS.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

Matt, our government have been embarassing throughout this disaster. Lockdown came too late, Boris looked as buffoonish as ever, talking about shaking hands and seeing no issue with it all the way into mid March. They didn't ban public events soon enough as they saw "no need at this stage". Same with closure of pubs, they literally belittled the idea of doing so and left it in the hands of the landlords, before quickly backtracking a few days later. Not to mention lack of clarity over key workers.

They talk a good talk when it comes to testing but we have been abysmal at that as well. Fundemental lack of PPE which Matt Hancock now has the gall to say is down to over-use by NHS staff (absolutely ridiculous). Medical practitioners galore have expressed the issues stemming from government, in as transparent a fashion as possible. There is no faith in the government to do the right thing, for good reason.

Reluctant to get involved in this, but I can’t not point out that you have no idea if the lockdown came too late, no idea if those that acted earlier are going to suffer worse with a serious second wave... Many, many scientists would disagree with you!

You talk as if they didn’t have a plan at that stage, they did, but the media didn’t like it, and you’ve been blinded by their opinions on it. That plan (Which hasn’t changed btw) was to allow it to spread, slow that spread down to a point that stops the NHS being overwhelmed and to shield the vulnerable... Then apply stronger measures at just the right time to keep below capacity, but allow for maximum community immunity levels... So far It’s working, we haven’t seen the NHS reach anywhere close to capacity, we haven’t seen the 250,000 deaths scaremongers predicted, and we are hitting the peak.

To be honest with you, I recognised immediately that it was the only viable plan, but even I didn’t expect it to work as well as it seems to be!

 

[Professor]

Matt, our government have been embarassing throughout this disaster. Lockdown came too late, Boris looked as buffoonish as ever, talking about shaking hands and seeing no issue with it all the way into mid March. They didn't ban public events soon enough as they saw "no need at this stage". Same with closure of pubs, they literally belittled the idea of doing so and left it in the hands of the landlords, before quickly backtracking a few days later. Not to mention lack of clarity over key workers.

They talk a good talk when it comes to testing but we have been abysmal at that as well. Fundemental lack of PPE which Matt Hancock now has the gall to say is down to over-use by NHS staff (absolutely ridiculous). Medical practitioners galore have expressed the issues stemming from government, in as transparent a fashion as possible. There is no faith in the government to do the right thing, for good reason.

I think the UK government's response has been pretty decent. ?‍

 

[JammyH]

I think the UK government's response has been pretty decent. ?‍

I disagree. I think the UK government's response has been beyond shambolic. Having the highest daily deaths out of any country in Europe is also evidence of this. Also the fact pretty much all of the "key speakers", Matt Hancock, Chris Witty & Boris Johnson all contracted the virus themselves, shows a complete lack of direction in their response.

Incorrect advice from the government, lack of PPE for frontline health care workers and measures being introduced far far too late. Also when you look at countries like Germany completing 500,000 tests a week and our NHS staff can barely get a test... it's not ok.

It's a tragedy. This many deaths could have been prevented, and we are still about a week or so from our peak daily deaths.

 

[Ethan]

You talk as if they didn’t have a plan at that stage, they did, but the media didn’t like it, and you’ve been blinded by their opinions on it.

Imagine being so blinded that you think tories care about your health and wellbeing. Sorry, but the whole thing has been a shambles.

 

[Nicky Borrill]

I disagree. I think the UK government's response has been beyond shambolic. Having the highest daily deaths out of any country in Europe is also evidence of this. Also the fact pretty much all of the "key speakers", Matt Hancock, Chris Witty & Boris Johnson all contracted the virus themselves, shows a complete lack of direction in their response.

Incorrect advice from the government, lack of PPE for frontline health care workers and measures being introduced far far too late. Also when you look at countries like Germany completing 500,000 tests a week and our NHS staff can barely get a test... it's not ok.

It's a tragedy. This many deaths could have been prevented, and we are still about a week or so from our peak daily deaths.

How are you so certain that deaths could have been prevented?

Do you know for sure these countries will not have a more severe second wave than us?

PPE has been an issue in almost every country. Every country wanted extra supplies, at the same key moment, and where do those supplies come from? China, how easy was it to get supplies from China in Jan / Feb?

Testing... we could have done better at getting that set up much much earlier. We simply did not have enough resources or testing capacity from the start. It’s the lack of initial testing capacity that left the governments plan, as the only plan... We were not in a position to test, trace and isolate.

But at this stage the only benefits to it are putting key workers back on the front line, and antibody tests (which don’t exist in a consistent form yet) to gauge immunity levels. At this stage I would only be testing front line staff and hospital cases too, and I’d be saving as many testing resources as possible, and increasing lab capacity in readiness to test, trace and isolate any second wave.