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Coronavirus: Impact on Theme Parks

Professor

Previously AndrewRollercoaster
In other news, it would seem that a 4th May reopening for German parks is genuinely being thought of, as the German Minister for Tourism has been quoted as saying that "open-air attractions", such as zoos and theme parks could reopen as soon as 4th May. In my opinion, this is brilliant news, and the German industry will really benefit!
EDIT: Source for Germany news: https://www.stuttgarter-zeitung.de/...nen.05f3ac9b-b6c5-4034-aa92-0eb017b3b0df.html

I guess it would be a good test for the rest of Europe to see what the hell happens if restrictions are lifted so soon, but I can't see us in the UK following quickly. Maybe a month or two at minimum down the line.

You would have thought fair operators will be screaming their heads off if they still can't operate in the summer if this is going on.
 

Matt N

CF Legend
I guess it would be a good test for the rest of Europe to see what the hell happens if restrictions are lifted so soon, but I can't see us in the UK following quickly. Maybe a month or two at minimum down the line.

You would have thought fair operators will be screaming their heads off if they still can't operate in the summer if this is going on.
I mean, irregardless of whether or not the rest of Europe follows, this is fantastic news for the German industry!
 

UP87

Mega Poster
German Minister for Tourism
Germany is a federal republic. Actually Guido Wolf is the Minister for Justice and for Europe in Baden-Württemberg. So he can't speak for Germany in any way but only for his federal state. Actually this would affect Europa-Park and Tripsdrill. Europa-Park claims to be closed indefinitely and Tripsdrill actually uses the 3rd may. But they might be able to open up their wildlife park sooner than the theme park. I doubt we'll see parks open that soon.
 

Matt N

CF Legend
Germany is a federal republic. Actually Guido Wolf is the Minister for Justice and for Europe in Baden-Württemberg. So he can't speak for Germany in any way but only for his federal state. Actually this would affect Europa-Park and Tripsdrill. Europa-Park claims to be closed indefinitely and Tripsdrill actually uses the 3rd may. But they might be able to open up their wildlife park sooner than the theme park. I doubt we'll see parks open that soon.
Thanks for the clarification @UP87, but I'd assume he will still be informed to some degree of the central German government's plans?
 

Hyde

Matt SR
Staff member
Moderator
Social Media Team
I was only surprised because the likes of Merlin, Six Flags, Cedar Fair and Disney have all announced substantial CAPEX cuts (e.g. Cedar Fair has cut 50% of its 2021 budget, Merlin has cut 40% of its estate CAPEX for an unknown period, Six Flags has cut a number of 2020 additions, Disney has announced delays or cancellations of many construction projects).

On the other hand, I suppose you do have companies like Universal & Compagnie des Alpes who have announced that they are proceeding with all current construction projects. I was only surprised because most people who I talk to have told me off for expecting any major investments this side of 2025.
If you do a keyword search of "2025" in this thread, you've been the only one saying it. :p The only actual discussion I've spotted beyond 2021 is a simple notion of attendance slumps - pragmatically speaking, amusement parks will imaginatively reopen on schedule next year, baring any major outbreak/next waves of Covid. I just haven't seen any real discussion on this being a prolonged, multi-year impact, especially as relates to investor news. (Who are the most specific group that follow medium/long term outlooks)

I also think you're accidentally conflating numbers and statistics - Cedar Fair, for instance, is cutting ~50% of non-essential capital projects for the 2020-2021 operating seasons; a couple quick notes of this announcement:
  • "Operating Seasons" - Cedar Fair has used the term "operating seasons" in the past to allude to Knott's operating year-round, using an April-to-April calendar. So the cut, imaginatively, would apply to this year's season alone, as the 2021 season would be the 2021-2022 operating season.
  • Roller Coasters are, most likely, essential projects - "non-essential" projects would most likely relate to TLC-style work, such as improving facades of shops, repaving of pathways, and other mending projects around the parks. We know the park is still planning to spend $85-$100M on projects; and new rides would certainly be a wise investment to ensure guests have new attractions to draw them back to the parks.
 

Professor

Previously AndrewRollercoaster
Germany is a federal republic. Actually Guido Wolf is the Minister for Justice and for Europe in Baden-Württemberg. So he can't speak for Germany in any way but only for his federal state. Actually this would affect Europa-Park and Tripsdrill. Europa-Park claims to be closed indefinitely and Tripsdrill actually uses the 3rd may. But they might be able to open up their wildlife park sooner than the theme park. I doubt we'll see parks open that soon.
I was wondering how many positions this Wolf guy had after reading the Loopings article which matches what you said.
 

UP87

Mega Poster
Thanks for the clarification @UP87, but I'd assume he will still be informed to some degree of the central German government's plans?
I think most of the restrictions are on a federal level. So he'd be in charge of lifting the restrictions in Baden-Württemberg. But the federal states try to synchronize some steps. When masks masks became mandatory there were some states that put the rule in place a bit sooner but in the end all the other states followed.
 

Matt N

CF Legend
I think most of the restrictions are on a federal level. So he'd be in charge of lifting the restrictions in Baden-Württemberg. But the federal states try to synchronize some steps. When masks masks became mandatory there were some states that put the rule in place a bit sooner but in the end all the other states followed.
Ah right. Thanks for the clarification @UP87; so we might see other German states follow in Baden-Württemberg's footsteps soon.
 

Professor

Previously AndrewRollercoaster
The French prime minister wants to start easing lockdown from May 11th onwards but still encouraging people to work from home if they can (I guess a bit like the pre official lockdown situation we had in the UK). The organisers of Formula 1 only just confirmed yesterday that the race set for end of June in France would definitely not be going ahead. So it will be interesting to see what this all means for re-opening the biggest theme park in Europe.
 

Matt N

CF Legend
If you do a keyword search of "2025" in this thread, you've been the only one saying it. :p The only actual discussion I've spotted beyond 2021 is a simple notion of attendance slumps - pragmatically speaking, amusement parks will imaginatively reopen on schedule next year, baring any major outbreak/next waves of Covid. I just haven't seen any real discussion on this being a prolonged, multi-year impact, especially as relates to investor news. (Who are the most specific group that follow medium/long term outlooks)

I also think you're accidentally conflating numbers and statistics - Cedar Fair, for instance, is cutting ~50% of non-essential capital projects for the 2020-2021 operating seasons; a couple quick notes of this announcement:
  • "Operating Seasons" - Cedar Fair has used the term "operating seasons" in the past to allude to Knott's operating year-round, using an April-to-April calendar. So the cut, imaginatively, would apply to this year's season alone, as the 2021 season would be the 2021-2022 operating season.
  • Roller Coasters are, most likely, essential projects - "non-essential" projects would most likely relate to TLC-style work, such as improving facades of shops, repaving of pathways, and other mending projects around the parks. We know the park is still planning to spend $85-$100M on projects; and new rides would certainly be a wise investment to ensure guests have new attractions to draw them back to the parks.
Ah right; thanks for the clarification @Hyde! What you've said is kind of the lines I've been thinking along, as most places I look at seem to suggest the impact only really lasting to a major extent while lockdowns are in place, but on other forums I'm on, I was told to expect "no big investments for at least 5 years, probably more like 10". My way of thinking is; surely the parks will recover to an extent once money begins flowing in again?

Also, the only reason I suggested that Cedar Fair was cutting ride investment was after Dorney Park very hastily removed their wooden shuttle coaster planning application.
 

Nicky Borrill

Strata Poster
When I originally said June / July for EU parks to be looking at opening, it seemed to come across as impossible to some folk, and to be fair, their concerns were reasonable and justified... And now we’re talking about early May opening!!!

I personally think that is too soon, I still stand by what I originally said. Early May will see many of the lower risk restrictions lifted, with restrictions on Theme Parks, and other higher risk pursuits beginning to be eased in June / July... Maybe the end of May at the earliest...

I don’t think this will go on longer than June personally... I expect all major northern hemisphere economies to be in full swing again by July.

Forget the scare mongering headlines suggesting a year of lockdown, the UK economy HAS to be back up and running by mid June, or it will completely collapse.

Measure will be loosened around the end April to mid may, and most will be gone by July.

The job retention scheme runs until the end of May.

P.s just reading that back, it is obvious I was referring to full lockdown, theme park closure, and economic shutdown when I said “don’t think will go on...” BUT just in case... I’m fully aware that distancing measures will go on for months, and maybe into next year.
 

Hyde

Matt SR
Staff member
Moderator
Social Media Team
Ah right; thanks for the clarification @Hyde! What you've said is kind of the lines I've been thinking along, as most places I look at seem to suggest the impact only really lasting to a major extent while lockdowns are in place, but on other forums I'm on, I was told to expect "no big investments for at least 5 years, probably more like 10". My way of thinking is; surely the parks will recover to an extent once money begins flowing in again?

Also, the only reason I suggested that Cedar Fair was cutting ride investment was after Dorney Park very hastily removed their wooden shuttle coaster planning application.
The wooden shuttle coaster plans were just removed from public view, that’s all. ?
 

Matt N

CF Legend
The wooden shuttle coaster plans were just removed from public view, that’s all. ?
Ah right; so they might still be on the table for 2021, but Cedar Fair got conscious of the fact that people were cottoning on to what they were putting in at Dorney, so removed the plans? Or something along those lines?
 

Hyde

Matt SR
Staff member
Moderator
Social Media Team
Ah right; so they might still be on the table for 2021, but Cedar Fair got conscious of the fact that people were cottoning on to what they were putting in at Dorney, so removed the plans? Or something along those lines?
It just turns out amusement parks don't like it when you get to see their secret plans. :p Depending on the county and city permit departments, they usually have steps in place to remove schematic drawings from permit filings from public view, especially if they are deemed a "trade secret." Developers often use this with their building permits to not tip off competitors to exact layouts/floorplans of new builds. So, what probably came to pass, was Cedar Fair doubled back on the permit to clarify what can be shown in the public filing.

TL;DR Cedar Fair is most likely building new rides in 2021. :)
 

Antinos

Slut for Spinners
Basically everybody who applied for permission at that particular board meeting pulled their application because Pennsylvania announced the postponement of all non-essential work days before. Since there was basically no point in seeking approval at that time, the meeting was, for all intents and purposes, put on hold. I'm sure everybody will re-apply at a later date, including Dorney.
 

Professor

Previously AndrewRollercoaster
When I originally said June / July for EU parks to be looking at opening, it seemed to come across as impossible to some folk, and to be fair, their concerns were reasonable and justified... And now we’re talking about early May opening!!!

I personally think that is too soon, I still stand by what I originally said. Early May will see many of the lower risk restrictions lifted, with restrictions on Theme Parks, and other higher risk pursuits beginning to be eased in June / July... Maybe the end of May at the earliest...


P.s just reading that back, it is obvious I was referring to full lockdown, theme park closure, and economic shutdown when I said “don’t think will go on...” BUT just in case... I’m fully aware that distancing measures will go on for months, and maybe into next year.

We seemed to get several positive reports at the beginning of the week, mostly from mainland Europe, but I'm now really fearing the worst for the UK Theme Park industry if we remain in lockdown till June (which some media reports are suggesting). Today's briefing might indicate what will happen over the next month, if anything. Presumably easing of lockdown may see the likes of theme parks at the bottom of the "is it necessary" list (I hope it's not the case).

With Merlin already issuing warnings about its financial state extended closures till possibly next year could be absolutely devastating for the UK theme park industry I fear.
 

Trax

Hyper Poster
Also some reports sound positive (Germany is thinking to allow some businesses to open up again, like zoos and churches), we should not forget that the virus can spread rather quick, and the total number of infected people is still larger than at the beginning of the "lockdown" measures.
I think that a second wave is going to hit us, and this one will be way larger than the first one, due to the larger base in beginning.

Here is an indicator, how many people are currently suffering from the virus: The overall death rate (technically the difference to the normal amount of deaths over a year). As you can see, the Flu is quite significant, but Corona beats it with ease - except for germany, were the measures taken seem to have helped, while the other countries I chose reacted slowly. And still, many Germans claim that the measures are useless and unneccesary - I think those numbers should prove those people wrong.

Source: https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#z-scores-by-country

1588251249592.png
 

Matt N

CF Legend
Some good news; Angela Merkel has announced that places such as playgrounds and museums will be able to reopen in Germany from 6th May with restrictions in place.

If museums can reopen, then I don't see why theme parks couldn't potentially open with social distancing in place. Now this has been announced, I could definitely see German parks beginning to reopen at some point in May.

As for what effect easing has had so far, Denmark has said that it has had "no noticeable effect", and even though Germany's R number has risen slightly, it is still well below the level required for rapid spread (an R number of 1 is required for rapid community transmission, while Germany's is currently at 0.76).

EDIT: Here's an article I found:https://www.dw.com/en/germany-lifts...ervices-opens-up-playgrounds-parks/a-53293936

It's saying that places like museums and zoos will be allowed to reopen under the new guidelines, so I think we could see a reopening of German theme parks imminently.
 
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